This Russian invasion of Georgia makes me very nervous. The situation is very complicated, with bad actors on all sides. My current understanding is that the Bush administration implied that the Georgians could count on our support if Russia responded to Georgia’s attempt to retake the South Ossetia region. Georgia’s incursion into Ossetia, combined with Russia’s paranoia about its neighbor’s move westward, triggered the Russian smackdown. If Georgia really thought the U.S. was going to send troops to defend her, well then that reveals a bit of naiveté on the part of Georgia. I mean, our army is pretty well occupied at the moment. And why would we want to be in a shooting war with Russia? Come on.
The worrying part is that the issue is more complex than can easily be explained on CNN, and our politicians speak less to reality, and more to perception. So when Obama and McCain both endorse Georgian membership in NATO they gloss over the fact that Georgia’s bid for entry into NATO helped precipitate the current crisis. They clearly understand that that’s the case, but by not explaining it they perpetuate the current “Big Bad Russia” meme.
We can’t afford to get into a fight with Russia, militarily or politically. But there’s nothing much to do otherwise, and Americans aren’t much for patience I’m afraid.
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